Over the past 60 years,the cultivated land area of the Tarim River has increased by about one million hm2,resulting in many ecological and environmental security problems within the basin.Using ESDA spatial analysis method and GWR model,this paper selects the water resources ecological environment index,social ecological environment index and ecological environment pressure index to study the ecological response to the land development and its temporal spatial evolution in the Tarim River Basin in 35 years from 1980 to 2015.Then the model on the land development versus ecological risk early-warning was built and the conclusion was summarized as follows:from 1980 to 2015,the ecological level of Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture and Kashi Prefecture had a big portion of positive transfer at 84.86% from the lower grade (I) to low level (Ⅱ).The ecological environment grades of the Keriya River Basin in Hotan Prefecture,northern Aksu and Qiemo County on the end of the Tarim River were seriously degraded with a negative transfer ratio at 23.46%.In Hotan,Aksu,and Kashi Prefectures,each increased of 10 thousand hm2 of reclamation of unused land,the comprehensive ecological environment score was dropped from 0.60 to 0.35,while in the Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture area it was increased by 1.30~2.1 points.De-farming one million hm2 of cropland in Kashi and Aksu each year will amount to the alleviation of the pollution pressure of 0.32 million tons and 0.15 million tons of chemical fertilizer respectively.The ecological risk of land development in Aksu and Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture reaches more than 75% of the environmental carrying capacity index,and the early warning level is more than Ⅱ.The land development in Kizilsu Kirghiz Autonomous Prefecture is in the ecological security range.With ten thousand hm2 of unused land development,the average growth of risk index in the whole basin was 0.003 4.If Bayingolin Prefecture increases 0.15~0.20 million hm2 of arable land,the ecological risk will be close to and even exceed the warning limit.Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture will enter the stage of moderate warning after 15 years.
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