正确认识区域产业同构状况及演变趋势，对于制定科学的经济发展政策，尤其是产业发展政策具有较为重要的现实意义。以陕北能源开发区-榆林市为研究对象，根据1995-2015年三次产业数据分析了榆林市产业结构模式，通过产业结构相似系数测度了榆林市产业同构，并从横向与纵向两个维度对产业同构进行对比分析，另采用R/S分析法，对未来产业同构的演变趋势进行预测。研究发现：（1）榆林市产业呈现典型的"二三一"产业结构模式，第二产业比重较大，成为推动全市经济发展的主导力量。（2）榆林市北六县和南六县内部产业结构趋同度属于较高层次，产业结构同质化现象十分严重；尤其以神木县-府谷县（0.976 2）和佳县-清涧县（0.967 5）最为突出，南六县与北六县绝大多数区县间产业同构度都低于0.9，产业趋同现象不明显。（3）榆林市南六县与北六县产业结构相似系数的H（1995-2015）=0.611 2>0.5，如果在原有条件下继续发展，榆林市未来产业同构化程度将有所强化，但存在周期性变化。研究认为在相似的能源条件、经济交流与联系日益紧密及经济发展水平不断接近的条件下，榆林市产业结构的趋同发展具有一定必然性，在未来制定促进经济发展的政策时应有一个清醒的认识。
A correct understanding of the situation and evolution trend of regional industrial isomorphism is of great practical significance to formulate scientific economic development policies,especially industrial development policies.Taking Yulin City,the energy exploitation area of northern Shaanxi Province,China,as the source of samples in the study area,the industrial structure model was analyzed firstly with the three industry data during the time period from 1995 to 2015.Then the industrial isomorphism was measured by the similarity coefficient of industrial structure,and compared from both the horizontal and vertical dimensions.Besides,the R/S analysis was adopted to forecast the evolution trend of the industrial isomorphism in Yulin City.The results have revealed as follows:(1) The industrial structure in Yulin City presented a typical mode of "the secondary > the tertiary > the primary",which means the secondary industry constitutes a large portion,and has become the leading force in driving the economic development. (2) The industrial isomorphism in northern Yulin (covering six counties) is at a high-level.So is it in southern Yulin (covering another six counties).Especially the similarity coefficient is 0.976 2 between Shenmu County and Fugu County,and 0.967 5 between Jiaxian and Qingjian County.The majority of the similarity coefficients between six counties in the north and the other six counties in the south are less than 0.9,indicating a less obvious industrial isomorphism. (3) The similar coefficient of the industrial structures between the six counties in the north as a whole and the six counties in the south as a whole is 0.611 2 (> 0.5),which indicated that if the industries continue to be developed without change under the circumstances,the level of industrial isomorphism will keep increased in a periodical variation.The study suggests that the industrial isomorphism in Yulin City has its own inevitability because of the similarity in the resources and tight connection in the economic development among the counties and people there should realize it in setting up future policies to promote regional economic development.
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