为了客观且科学地评价和管理新疆柯柯牙生态工程区的水资源脆弱性，基于自然、人为及社会经济3方面构建水资源脆弱性评价指标体系，设置现状发展型、经济导向型、资源节约型及绿色协调型4种情景，应用综合模糊评价法、熵权法以及系统动力学模型对区域水资源脆弱性进行评价及预测。结果表明：（1） 2010—2020年研究区水资源脆弱性总体得分为0.466，属中等脆弱。（2） 现状发展型、经济导向型、资源节约型和绿色协调型4种发展情景下的水资源脆弱性均呈现上升趋势，到2035年4种情景下的水资源脆弱值分别为0.512、0.574、0.549、0.511，表明在未来区内水资源供需问题日益严峻，其中资源节约型对缓解水资源供需不平衡的效果最优。该研究探寻柯柯牙工程实施前后水资源的变化特征，提供设置不同发展情景分析了未来水资源脆弱性变化规律，对干旱区绿化工程的实施提供相关理论参考，同时也对当地的水资源可持续发展具有一定的现实意义。

With the rapid economic development and the population growth, the fragility of water resources has become a key constraint on the sustainable development of the Kekeya Project Area in Xinjiang, China. Based on natural, anthropogenic and socio-economic factors, an evaluation index system of water resource fragility was constructed incorporating four developmental scenarios: status-quo development, economy orientation, resource conservation, and green coordination. The system dynamics model was employed to assess and predict water resource fragility in the region. Results indicate that from 2010 to 2020, the water fragility of the area decreased with increased water conservation efforts, but overall fragility remained moderate. Of the four development scenarios, simulation results for water resources’ healthy development showed, first, an upward trend for water resources’ future fragility, and, second, that resource conservation scenario will best alleviate imbalance between water supply and demand. Therefore, adjusting economic structure and innovating water-saving technologies can have a positive effect on alleviating water resource fragility. Future development should prioritize not only the economic development of the Kekeya Project Zone, but also increase the intensity of ecological construction to achieve high-quality, sustainable water resource management in the in the region.