内蒙古冰雹特征及基于机器学习的冰雹识别方法研究
收稿日期: 2024-01-25
修回日期: 2024-04-25
网络出版日期: 2025-01-21
基金资助
国家自然科学基金重点项目(42030604);内蒙古自然科学基金面上项目(2024MS0424);中国气象局创新发展专项项目(CXFZ 2022J033);内蒙古自治区气象局科技创新项目(nmqxkjcx202470)
Hail characteristics and hail recognition method based on machine learning in Inner Mongolia
Received date: 2024-01-25
Revised date: 2024-04-25
Online published: 2025-01-21
辛悦 , 苏立娟 , 郑旭程 , 李慧 , 衣娜娜 , 靳雨晨 . 内蒙古冰雹特征及基于机器学习的冰雹识别方法研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025 , 48(1) : 11 -19 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.057
Based on the manual observation of hail records in Inner Mongolia, China, from 1959 to 2021, the spatial and temporal characteristics of hail distribution are analyzed, and a hail recognition method is constructed based on machine learning algorithms. The results are as follows: (1) Regarding temporal distribution, the number of hail days and affected stations in Inner Mongolia shows a decreasing trend. In terms of spatial distribution, hail events are predominantly concentrated in the Yinshan Mountains and the Greater Hinggan Mountains, with hail-prone areas extending along these mountain ranges. (2) Hail exhibits distinct seasonal and diurnal characteristics. The peak hail months in Inner Mongolia are from May to September, accounting for 91.79% of the annual hail days. The most frequent period for hail occurrences is between 12:00 BST and 19:00 BST. (3) Four machine learning algorithms (random forest, LightGBM, K-proximity, and decision tree) are used to model and evaluate hail events in Inner Mongolia through data preprocessing, predictor selection, model training, and tuning. Verification results indicate that machine learning methods effectively identify hail events, with the threat score of each model exceeding 0.83 and hit rates surpassing 92%. Among these, the random forest algorithm demonstrates the best recognition performance on the test set. These findings provide useful references for hail forecasting and artificial hail prevention in Inner Mongolia.
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