收稿日期: 2023-07-19
修回日期: 2023-10-07
网络出版日期: 2025-01-02
基金资助
山东省自然科学基金青年项目(ZR2022QG029)
Coupling and coordinated development of new infrastructure and regional resilience in China: Spatio-temporal differences and evolution trends
Received date: 2023-07-19
Revised date: 2023-10-07
Online published: 2025-01-02
新基建与区域韧性耦合协调发展是实现新型城镇化的有效途径。构建新基建与区域韧性评价指标体系，基于组合赋权和耦合协调度模型测度31个省份2013—2020年新基建与区域韧性发展指数及耦合协调水平，并采用Dagum基尼系数、空间自相关与马尔可夫链，分析其时空差异与演变趋势特征。结果发现：（1）新基建与区域韧性发展指数皆呈上升趋势，两者耦合协调状态由轻度失调转变为勉强协调。（2）耦合协调水平存在空间非均衡性，总体差异有所减小，地区间差异是总体差异的最主要来源。（3）耦合协调水平有明显的空间集聚特征，主要表现为东部的高值集聚区与西部的低值集聚区。（4）耦合协调性具有向更高水平跃迁的概率倾向，但难以实现跨越式发展；高值省份对邻近省份有显著的正向溢出效应。研究揭示了新基建与区域韧性的发展现状，有助于为多方主体的规划和管理提供理论支撑及决策参考。
张立新 , 张家瑞 . 中国新基建与区域韧性耦合协调发展：时空差异与演变趋势[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024 , 47(12) : 2164 -2176 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.370
Coupling and coordinated development of new infrastructure and regional resilience is an effective way to achieve new urbanization. This study constructs an evaluation index system for new infrastructure and regional resilience. Using a combination weighting and coupling coordination degree model, we measure the development index and coupling coordination level of new infrastructure and regional resilience across 31 provinces of China from 2013 to 2020. The Dagum Gini coefficient, spatial autocorrelation, and Markov chain are used to analyze spatial and temporal differences and evolution trend characteristics. The results reveal the following: (1) The new infrastructure and regional resilience development index are rising, with the coupling coordination state transitioning from mild imbalance to narrow coordination. (2) A spatial imbalance is observed in the level of coupling coordination; although the overall difference is decreasing, interregional differences remain the primary source of the overall disparity. (3) The coupling coordination level exhibits pronounced spatial agglomeration characteristics, mainly represented by high-value agglomeration areas in the east and low-value agglomeration areas in the west. (4) Coupling coordination tends to progress to high levels, although achieving leapfrog development remains challenging; high-value provinces exert a substantial positive spillover effect on neighboring provinces. This study examines the development status of new infrastructure and regional resilience, providing theoretical support and decision-making references for multiagent planning and management.
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