随着青藏高原气候变暖，高原湖泊数量和面积均表现出显著增加趋势，东昆仑-库木库里盆地湖泊扩张亦十分明显。阿牙克库木湖是库木库里盆地最大盐湖，新疆第三次综合科学考察表明，该湖泊已扩张为新疆最大湖泊。基于科考资料，结合遥感卫星资料，对阿牙克库木湖扩张及其流域冰川、冻土、气温和降水等要素进行分析，探讨湖泊水量及其补给水源的关系。结果表明：（1） 1990―2023年，阿牙克库木湖面积从623.03 km²扩张至1141.67 km²，2002―2023年湖面水位上升了7.28 m，对应水储量增加了66.64×10⁸ m³。（2） 1990―2023年，阿牙克库木湖流域冰川面积减少了16.4 km²，体积减少了1.96 km³。截止2023年，流域分布冰川451条，总面积为324.26 km²。（3） 2010年青藏高原冻土分布图显示，流域分布多年冻土12395 km²，季节冻土10652 km²。（4） 水量平衡分析表明，冰川和冻土融水径流分别占阿牙克库木湖总入湖水量的9%和5%，季节冻土和多年冻土区降水径流占比为67%，湖面降水量直接补给占比为19%。总体而言，湖泊的扩张主要是流域降水量增加所致。研究揭示了库木库里盆地地表水文过程，可为当地政府优化水资源配置和管理提供参考。

With the warming of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the trend of increase in the number and size of plateau lakes is on the rise, with a noticeable expansion of lakes over the Kumkuli Basin in the eastern Kunlun Mountains. Ayakkum Lake is the largest saltwater lake in the Kumkuli Basin, and the Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition data indicates that the lake has expanded to become the largest lake in Xinjiang. Based on the expedition data and remote sensing imagery, this study analyzes and subsequently discusses the change in the water volume of Ayakkum Lake and replenishment of its water sources, including glacier, permafrost, temperature, and precipitation. The results show that: (1) The area of Ayakkum Lake expanded from 623.03 km² in 1990 to 1141.67 km² in 2023, and the lake level rose by 7.28 m from 2002 to 2023, corresponding to an increase in water storage of 66.64×10⁸ m³. (2) The glacier area in the Ayakkum Lake Basin decreased by 16.4 km² from 1990 to 2023, with a volume reduction of 1.96 km³. Until 2023, there were 451 glaciers with a total area of 324.26 km² in the region. (3) A distribution map of permafrost over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in 2010 shows that the continuous permafrost area was 12395 km² and seasonal permafrost area was 10652 km². (4) A water balance analysis of the area indicates that glacier and permafrost meltwater account for 9% and 5% of the total inflow into Ayakkum Lake, respectively, whereas runoff from land surface precipitation in seasonal frost and permafrost regions accounts for 67% of the total inflow into Ayakkum Lake. Additionally, replenishment to the lake water surface via direct precipitation accounts for 19% of the total inflow into Ayakkum Lake. In other words, the expansion of the lake mainly resulted from an increase in precipitation over the Ayakkum Lake Basin. This study reveals the land surface hydrological processes in the Kumkuli Basin and provides reference for local governments to optimize water resource allocation and management.