定量分析地表水资源开发利用潜力有助于明晰区域水资源禀赋，对区域未来水资源科学规划和可持续开发利用具有重要的指导意义。通过供需水量平衡，从地表径流量、生态需水量、地表水可利用量角度，初步探讨了昆仑山北坡县域单元的地表水资源开发利用潜力，以期为昆仑山北坡科学规划和兵团南进布局提供水资源保障依据。结果表明：（1） 昆仑山北坡河流径流2000年后呈显著增加趋势，主要河流2001—2010年年均径流量较2000年以前平均增加了23.36%，2011—2020年较2000年以前平均增加了42.89%，其中车尔臣河增幅最大，和田河增幅最小。（2） 车尔臣河流域、克里雅河流域和和田河流域的生态基流量分别为4.67×10⁸ m³、5.38×10⁸ m³和20.26×10⁸ m³，天然植被生态需水量分别为4.34×10⁸ m³、4.00×10⁸ m³和2.62×10⁸ m³。（3） 昆仑山北坡各县域单元现状地表水已用水量范围为0.1×10⁸~8.73×10⁸ m³，地表水资源潜力范围为-0.07×10⁸~3.17×10⁸ m³，空间差异非常显著，其中水资源潜力大于2.00×10⁸ m³的有墨玉县、铁门关市38团、策勒县、且末县、和田县、民丰县和洛浦县。现状区域的地表水资源调蓄能力不足，水资源利用上限偏低，虽有潜力但有水难用，未来昆仑山北坡各县域单元需制定修编更为适宜的地表水资源规划并加强基础水利工程建设，提升地表水资源利用效率，为区域高质量发展提供水资源支撑保障。

Quantitative analysis of the water resources potential is helpful for determining the amount of regional water resources. This in turn is significant for guiding scientific planning and sustainable utilization of regional water resources in the future. In this study, we initially discussed the surface water resources potential of the county units on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains by balancing water supply and demand. The analysis considered surface runoff, ecological water demand, and the amount of available surface water to determine the necessity of protecting water resources in this region. The results showed that: (1) The runoff of rivers on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains showed a significant increase after 2000, with the average annual runoff increasing by 23.36% from 2001 to 2010 and 42.89% from 2011 to 2020 compared with that before 2000, among which the Qarqan River showed the largest increase and the Hotan River showed the smallest increase. (2) The ecological base flows for the Qarqan River Basin, Keriya River Basin, and Hotan River Basin were 4.67×10⁸ m³, 5.38×10⁸ m³, and 20.26×10⁸ m³, respectively, and the ecological water demands of natural vegetation were 4.34×10⁸ m³, 4.00×10⁸ m³, and 2.62×10⁸ m³, respectively. (3) The current surface water consumption of each county unit on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains ranged from 0.1×10⁸ to 8.73×10⁸ m³, and the potential of surface water resources ranged from −0.07×10⁸ to 3.17×10⁸ m³; additionally, the spatial difference was significant. The surface water resource potential was greater than 2.00×10⁸ m³ in Moyu County, Tiemenguan City 38^th Regiment, Qira County, Qiemo County, Hotan County, Minfeng County, and Lop County. The current surface water resources storage capacity of the region is insufficient, and the use of water resources is relatively low. Despite the significant surface water potential of this region, it is difficult to use this water due to regional characteristics; consequently, in the future, the county units on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains need to formulate and revise a more appropriate surface water resources usage plan and strengthen the construction of basic surface water conservancy projects to enhance the efficiency of surface water resources allocation and utilization, thus ensuring water resources support for facilitating the region’s development.