湖冰物候变化特征是全球气候变化过程的重要指示器。通过长时间序列MODIS数据、Landsat数据提取的湖泊数据集,综合分析了2000—2019年新疆大型湖泊湖冰物候的变化特征。结果表明：（1） 近20 a新疆大型湖泊的开始冻结日呈现提前和推迟2种变化趋势,开始冻结日呈现推迟趋势的湖泊分别为博斯腾湖、赛里木湖、艾比湖、吉力湖、乌伦古湖、萨利吉勒干南库勒湖和鲸鱼湖,且大部分湖泊的开始冻结日推迟趋势在0.51~1.53 d·a^-1之间;开始冻结日呈现提前趋势的湖泊有3个,分别为阿牙克库木湖（变化趋势为-1.04 d·a^-1）、阿克赛钦湖（变化趋势为-0.41 d·a^-1）、阿其克库勒湖（-0.31 d·a^-1）。（2） 湖冰完全覆盖期是重要的湖冰参数,湖冰覆盖期的延长或者缩短能够直接表示区域气候变化过程,新疆大部分湖泊湖冰覆盖期表现为缩短趋势,其中分布在新疆中北部的艾比湖、吉力湖和博斯腾湖等湖泊的湖冰覆盖期缩短较为明显,变化趋势分别为-1.76 d·a^-1、-2.13 d·a^-1和-0.81 d·a^-1;冰完全覆盖期延长的湖泊有3个,分别为阿牙克库木湖、阿其克库勒湖和鲸鱼湖,变化趋势分别为3.51 d·a^-1、1.54 d·a^-1和1.37 d·a^-1,这些湖泊均匀分布在昆仑山高原北翼。（3） 新疆大型湖泊湖冰物候变化特征是受其自身条件（湖泊形态因子、湖泊面积等）及气候变化（气温、降水量等）等多种因素共同作用的结果。本研究探讨了气候变化环境下的新疆大型湖泊湖冰物候的冻融趋势及其变化模式,同时应用不同遥感数据和研究方法识别了湖冰,证实了MODIS数据反演湖冰物候的可行性。

Lake ice phenology is considered to be an accurate indicator of regional climate change. This work studies the changes in the ice characteristics of the large lakes in Xinjiang, China. The lakes chosen in this study are equally distributed in the oasis and mountain areas. With their different geographical locations, the evolution and ice conditions of the lakes are influenced by human activities to different extents; thus, these lakes are ideal research items for research on arid-semiarid areas. This study conducts an analysis predominantly based on long term MODIS and Landsat data, which is used to reveal the phenological characteristics of lake ice on the large lakes in Xinjiang during the period 2000—2019 via multiband threshold analysis, trend analysis, and other methods. The results of this work can be summarized as follows: (1) Lakes in Xinjiang begin to freeze in the period from October to December every year, and their ice cover periods end in the period from March to June; during the study period the lakes that exhibited a freeze-up start (FUS) increasingly late in the year were Bosten Lake, Sayram Lake, Ebinur Lake, Jingyu Lake, Ulunggur Lake, and Surigh Yilganing Kol Lake; the rate of change of the FUS was between 0.51-1.53 d·a^-1. The break-up start occurred later in the year for Ayakkum Lake, Aksayqin Lake, and Aqikkol Lake; the change rate of this trend was found to be -1.04 d·a^-1, -0.41 d·a^-1, -0.31 d·a^-1, respectively. (2) The complete freeze duration (CFD) is one of the most important parameters in ice phenology, which can be used to directly represent the process of climate change. Most lakes showed a decrease in CFD between the years 2000 and 2019, among them Ebinur Lake, Jili Lake, and Bosten Lake had significant reduction in CFD, with a rate of change of -1.76 d·a^-1, -2.13 d·a^-1, -0.81 d·a^-1, respectively, whereas Ayakkum Lake has the highest increase in CFD among all lakes in Xinjiang (3.51 d·a^-1). (3) The variations in phenology and evolution of the ice cover of the Xinjiang large lake are the result of local and climate-related factors. The temperature, lake morphology factors, lake area, and shape of the shore line are found to be the principal factors that affect the phenology of lake ice. However, the effect of lake salinity and geological structure of lake ice evolution cannot be neglected. As the climatic conditions of Xinjiang has evolved toward being warmer and wetter, most lakes show a reduction in CFD. This study on the phenological characteristics of lake ice on the many lakes in Xinjiang provides data related to arid/semiarid areas that until now have lacked data and provides more accurate parameter indicators and a scientific basis for studying climate change.