安康水电站精细化降水预报的检验

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2018.06.04

干旱区地理 ›› 2018, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (6): 1169-1177.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2018.06.04

安康水电站精细化降水预报的检验

高红燕¹, 席秋义², 王丹¹, 张宏芳¹, 浩宇¹

1 陕西省气象服务中心, 陕西西安 710014;
2 国网陕西省电力公司电力科学研究院, 陕西西安 710100

收稿日期:2018-06-03 修回日期:2018-09-26 出版日期:2018-11-25
作者简介:高红燕(1966-),女,陕西延川县人,高级工程师,本科,主要从事应用气象研究及业务.E-mail:gaohongyan121@163.com
基金资助:
陕西省科技发展计划项目（2012K12-03-02）；国网陕西省电力公司（5226AS150004）；陕西省气象局重点科研项目（2016Z-1）

Inspection of refined precipitation forecast for Ankang Hydropower Station

GAO Hong-yan¹, XI Qiu-yi², WANG Dan¹, ZHANG Hong-fang¹, HAO Yu¹

1 Meteorological Service Center of Shaanxi Province, Xi'an 710014, Shaanxi, China;
2 State Grid Shaanxi Electric Power Research Institute, Xi'an 710100, Shaanxi, China

Received:2018-06-03 Revised:2018-09-26 Online:2018-11-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 降水精细化数值预报模式的发展是开展精细化降水预报业务的理想途径，而模式本地化中的误差评估是当前开展业务应用的重要环节。基于此，运用误差分析、晴雨预报准确率、降水TS评分方法评估陕西精细化数值预报攻关团队提供的2016年5月1日~9月30日安康水电站降水预报。结果表明：随着降水时效的增长，降水的预报准确率呈减小趋势；大雨以上的降水过程预报较好且未出现漏报，但量值与实况有差异，预报值小于实况值；20时起报的预报准确率大于08时起报的准确率且夜间的高于白天；降水日数多的月份TS评分预报准确率高于降水日数少的月份。比较安康和石泉的结果发现，安康的预报准确率明显优于石泉，主要原因是安康降水日数比石泉多，且大的降水过程比石泉少。逐1 h、3 h的72 h以内的降水预报可以为安康水电厂水利调度提供参考。

关键词: 数值预报, 检验评估, 降水预报

Abstract: The development of numerical precipitation forecasting model in high resolution is an ideal way to carry out the refined precipitation forecast service.However,the bias evaluation in model localization is an important process of the current application service.In this study,the bias analysis,clear-rain forecast accuracy,and precipitation TS scoring method were used to evaluate the precipitation forecast at Ankang hydropower Station,Shaanxi Province,China in the flood season from May 1 to September 30,2016 which was provided by the Shaanxi refined numerical forecasting team.The results indicated that the forecast accuracy rate of precipitation is declining with the increase of precipitation forecast aging.The prediction of heavy rain has a high accuracy rate without omission,while the prediction values are less than the actual values.The forecast accuracy rate initialized in 20:00 is higher than that in 08:00,and the accuracy rate at night is higher than that of daytime.Months with more rainfall days have a higher forest accuracy rate according to TS scoring than that of months with less rainfall.The forecast accuracy rate of the Ankang is better than that of Shiquan.The main reason is that the precipitation days (precipitation amount) of Ankang is more than those of Shiquan.These hourly and 3-hourly (within 72 hours) precipitation forecasts can provide a reference for the water dispatching service of Ankang hydroelectric power station.

Key words: numerical forecast, test and assessment, precipitation forecast

中图分类号:

P426.6

高红燕, 席秋义, 王丹, 张宏芳, 浩宇. 安康水电站精细化降水预报的检验[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(6): 1169-1177.

GAO Hong-yan, XI Qiu-yi, WANG Dan, ZHANG Hong-fang, HAO Yu. Inspection of refined precipitation forecast for Ankang Hydropower Station[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(6): 1169-1177.

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