天山南侧喀什地区冰雹潜势预报及预警指标的研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2018.05.05

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用2008-2017年5~8月天山南侧喀什地区气象台站观测记录、人工防雹作业点记录、灾害调查等资料，喀什探空站08时、20时探空资料，喀什雷达探测资料及其基数据反演产品，对冰雹的年分布、月分布及日变化特征进行了分析，归纳出冰雹云的雷达回波特征及移动路径，依据百分位数方法确定了以0℃层高度、-20℃层高度、冻结层厚度、全总指数、杰弗逊指数、K指数、沙氏指数为代表的冰雹预报指标，以及以回波顶高及其与当日0℃层高度差、40~50 dBZ回波高度及其与当日0℃层高度差、组合反射率、垂直积分液态水含量为代表的雷达特征预警指标。

关键词: 回波顶高, 垂直累积液态水含量, 组合反射率, 移动路径, 预警指标

Abstract: In this paper,the variation characteristics of hail stone in the range of May to August from 2008 to 2017 were analyzed by using the observation records of Kashi meteorological stations on the south side of Tianshan Mountains,Xinjiang,China,the records of artificial hailing,Kashi sounding data at 08:00 AM and 20:00 PM and detection data of radars.The radar echo characteristics and the moving path of the hail cloud were studied and forecast index and radar warning index of the hail cloud are determined based on the percentile method.The results showed as follows:(1) Hail stone appeared on the south side of the Tianshan Mountains in the past 10 years,concentrated on the period from May to August and most appear in Jun,especially at 18:00~24:00 PM and most at 20:00 PM. (2) The four migration paths of hail cloud were northwest,north,west and southerly.One half of hail cloud origin in the southern Tianshan Mountainous Area,and the other half originated in the plain area in eastern Kashi Prefecture. (3) The potential forecasting index of hail in the range of May to August is 0℃ layer height difference smaller than 4.6 km,-20℃ layer height difference smaller than 7.5 km,freezing layer thickness is less than 3.0 km,General index is bigger than 46℃,Jefferson index is bigger than 114.0℃,K index is bigger than 21℃ and SI index is smaller than 1.8℃ at 08:00 AM. (4) The Radar warning indexes of hail cloud in the range of May-August before hail 15 min are as follows:The echo top height is bigger than 12.2 km,and the 0℃ height difference is bigger than 7.7 km.The 40,45,50 dBZ echo heights are greater than 9.4,8.6,7.8 km respectively and the 0℃ layer height difference is bigger than 4.9,4.0,3.4 km.In addition,combined reflectivity is bigger than 53 dBZ,vertical cumulative liquid water content is bigger than 13 kg·m^-2,and thickness of upwind zone in the radial wind field is exceeds 1.8 km.The Radar warning indexes of hail in the range of May-August before hail 30 min are as follows:the echo top height is bigger than 12.3 km,0℃ layer height difference bigger than 7.8 km.The 40,45,50 dBZ echo heights are greater than 9.6,8.1,7.3 km respectively and the 0℃ layer height difference is bigger than 5.1,3.5,2.7 km.Moreover,the combined reflectance is greater than 47 dBZ,vertical cumulative liquid water content is greater than 7 kg·m^-2,and thickness of upwind zone in the radial wind field is exceeds 1.5 km.

Key words: echo tops (ET), vert integrated liquid (VIL), composite reflectance (CR), moving path, nowcasting indicators

中图分类号:

P458.1.1

王昀, 卢品睿, 王旭. 天山南侧喀什地区冰雹潜势预报及预警指标的研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(5): 937-944.

WANG Yun, LU Pin-rui, WANG Xu. Nowcasting indicators of radar of hail cloud in southern Tianshan Mountains[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(5): 937-944.

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