概率回归方法在宁夏分级沙尘天气预报中的应用检验

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用2010-2013年的2～5月T639模式产品和同时段宁夏25站沙尘实况资料，应用概率回归方法建立了宁夏春季2～5月沙尘和强沙尘两个等级的72 h沙尘概率预报方程，并使用B评分、B_s评分、B_ias及T_S评分方法对2014年2～5月预报结果进行了检验。检验结果表明：B_s都为正值，该方法对宁夏春季分级沙尘有预报能力；气候概率越大，预报方程选取的预报因子代表性和物理意义越明确，预报效果也越好；沙尘过程范围越大、强度越强，过程预报效果越明显；且随着预报时效临近，模式调整，预报能力也显著提高；但由于宁夏沙尘正样本数相对较少，尤其是强沙尘气候概率小，因此导致漏报率较高，概率预报偏差率呈现出一致的偏少倾向。

关键词: 概率回归方法, 分级沙尘, 预报检验

Abstract: In this paper,probability forecast equations of 72 hour's dust forecast in two grades(general dust and strong dust) in spring in Ningxia Province,China were established using probability regression method based on T639 model products from February to May in 2010-2013 and the observation data of sand in 25 stations in Ningxia in the same time period. The forecast result from February to May in 2014 was evaluated using B score,B_s score and B_ias method. The evaluation results show:in dust prediction,the principal concerns are potential vorticity in the middle and lower troposphere,frontogenetical function and water vapor flux in the horizontal direction for general dust,as well as vorticity in 150 hPa in the tropopause and humidity factor for strong dust storm,this illustrates that strong dust weather forecast in Ningxia should consider overall the weather system in high and low levels and cooperation of dynamic heat and water vapor factors;the B_s values are positive for both general dust and strong dust,whose values are 0.19-0.76 and 0.001-0.53,respectively,indicating this method has prediction ability on sand of classification in spring in Ningxia,and the prediction effect decreases with the extension of forecast period;in general,the greater the climatic probability,the larger the region and the stronger the dust storm process is,the more obvious the forecast effect is. With the forecast time approaching,model adjustment, the forecast ability also improved significantly,the method in this paper can basically forecast the 6 large-scale sand and dust weather processes in Ningxia,and can forecast 24 hours in advance for strong dust weather in a single station;so the probability classification forecast have actively guidance and practical application values on dust intensive forecast in Ningxia,and can be extended to grading precipitation,fog and haze and other small probability weather forecast;but because sand dust climate probability is small in Ningxia,especially the strong dust,the missing probability is high,and forecast probability error is always less than what it is. Therefore, it is very necessary to obtain a much longer history samples to improve prediction equation,strengthen the analysis and selection of forecast factors that have clear physical meaning. By combining with the subjective experience of the forecaster,the improvement of numerical weather forecast models and the statistical methods,the prediction ability of this method will be further enhanced.

Key words: probability event regression analysis, graded sand, forecast test

中图分类号:

P456.8

陈豫英, 陈楠, 张磊, 李强, 聂晶鑫, 薛宏宇. 概率回归方法在宁夏分级沙尘天气预报中的应用检验[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(4): 704-711.

CHEN Yu-ying, CHEN Nan, ZHANG Lei, LI Qiang, NIE Jin-xin, XUE Hong-yu. Application verification of the regression estimation of event probabilities in graded sand prediction[J]. , 2016, 39(4): 704-711.

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